The president of the ECOWAS Commission Omar Alieu Touray officially, on Tuesday, February, 2025, received the first edition of the ECOWAS Regional Economic Outlook.
The theme of this edition is “Review of Regional Economic Dynamics in the Face of Political Instability and Security Threats”, an analysis of the current economic challenges and opportunities facing ECOWAS member states.
The report examines the importance of peace and stability as drivers of development, in line with ECOWAS Vision 2050 for a prosperous and peaceful region.
It identified a gap in the organization’s progress towards achieving SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions) by 2030, with mixed progress. A SWOT analysis, a tool for identifying the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of an organization or project, recommends reforming the Additional Protocol on Democracy and Governance, strengthening collaboration with the African Union and the UN, and mobilizing resources for its Standby Force.
The Outlook concludes that the global environment is impacting the region’s economic prospects and highlights the need to reduce economic disparities through diversification and human capital development.
Strategic recommendations include the coordination of macroeconomic policies for harmonious development, regional financial integration and reform of security architecture.
These actions are aimed at strengthening security and realizing Pillar 1 of ECOWAS Vision 2050.
In this 2023 edition, the 1st chapter addresses the global economic slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, resulting in high inflation and a contraction of global growth to 1.7% in 2023.
The ECOWAS region proved resilient, with moderate growth of 3.9% in 2023. However, global inflationary pressures have affected the zone, particularly in low-income countries, where food and energy prices have risen sharply.
Chapter 2 of the report focuses on ECOWAS’s economic performance and prospects from 2010 to 2022.
Member states’ economies have been marked by fluctuating growth, impacted by health crises such as Ebola and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as economic shocks such as falling oil prices. After growing by 5.2% in 2011, the rate fell to -0.6% in 2016, before rising slightly to 3.9% in 2022, indicating a post-COVID-19 recovery.
During this period, inflation remained high, reaching 17.3% in 2022 due to the depreciation of national currencies, rising food prices and the lingering effects of COVID-19.
ECOWAS public finances have also been put to the test, with the regional budget deficit rising from -4.5% in 2010 to -5.6% in 2022.
This increase is linked to the burden of debt servicing and additional expenditure to cope with COVID-19.
In terms of outlook, regional GDP is expected to reach 4.1% in 2024, supported by growth in certain countries (Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal).
However, the risks associated with political instability in several countries, coups d’état and sanctions could affect this forecast. Inflation is set to fall gradually, from 18.8% in 2023 to 11.9% in 2025, although some states, such as Ghana, are likely to continue to experience high inflation.
Global geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could intensify inflationary pressures by raising energy and food prices.
In addition, climate vulnerability in the region could exacerbate extreme poverty, adding to the social and economic challenges.
Growth projections remain uneven across countries, with high rates in the UEMOA zone and difficulties in the WAMZ, particularly for Nigeria and Ghana, faced with restrictive monetary policies and energy challenges. Economic diversification, particularly in agriculture and infrastructure, could help stabilize commodity prices in the long term, while promoting resilience to external shocks.
Chapter 3 of the report addresses the challenges of peace, security and stability, key elements for the socio-economic development of the region, aligned with Pillar 1 of Vision 2050 entitled “Peace, Security and Stability.”
Although peace and security is a strategic objective, ECOWAS is facing increasing difficulties due to recurrent conflicts and coups d’état, particularly since 2021 in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger.
This political instability reflects worrying democratic shortcomings and increases security threats.
Maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea, marked by piracy, costs the countries concerned some 1.94 billion dollars a year, compromising their economic development.
The average peace index in the region deteriorated in 2022, reaching 2.25 compared to 2.20 in 2021, with significant disparities: while Gambia, Ghana and Sierra Leone are relatively stable, Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria and Niger remain vulnerable to terrorism and civil violence. Insecurity is most acute in the Sahel, but coastal states (Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, Benin) are also threatened in their border areas.
This insecurity has led to massive displacement, affecting over six million people in the region by 2022, the majority of them internally displaced.
The situation stems from complex factors such as poor governance, community tensions, demographics, youth unemployment and environmental threats.
These security crises are disrupting the education and health sectors, forcing massive closures of schools and health centers, especially in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
“The training workshop is more than just the gathering of minds but a strategic imperative. We are here to confront the hard truths about our security environment and to forge a path forward that is both innovative and resilient.
The security of our region is inextricably linked to the well- being of our people, the stability of our economies and sustainability of our development. We cannot afford to address these issues in silos” She added.
In his presentation on “Data Quality, Verification and Analysis” Mr. Gbenga ERIN, Geographic Information Analyst, Early Waring Directorate at the ECOWAS Commission, noted that maintaining high standards of data quality and verification was critical for performing effective data analysis, ensuring that the insights derived are accurate, actionable, and reliable.
So far, the National Coordination Centres for Early Warning and Response Mechanism have been established in eleven ECOWAS member states while preparatory activities are currently being implemented to fast-track the launching of the four remaining centers. Following the launching of the centers, the Early Warning Directorate has continued to provide capacity building and trainings based on its five thematic focus on human security which are governance and human rights, crime and criminality, security, environment and health.