China Surpasses US In Aid To Africa -As Liberia Tops Export Market

By Bill W. Cooper
The Liberia Country Economic Memorandum has revealed that China has officially overtaken the United States as the country’s top export market, marking a significant shift in Liberia’s trade dynamics.
Titled “Escaping the Natural Resource Trap: Pathways to Sustainable Growth and Economic Diversification in Liberia”, the report was launched Tuesday, March 11, 2025, as its insights are to help to inform strong delivery on the ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID).
The World Bank’s flagship report provides an in-depth analysis of Liberia’s economic outlook and examines how the country’s vulnerability to external shocks has influenced its sustainable growth and development.
The report comes at a critical juncture, as the U.S. government announced a freeze on USAID aid to Liberia and several other countries, raising concerns about the future of economic support and development in the country.
America, since the founding of Liberia, has been one of the country’s longest allies, contributing significantly to the nation’s economic growth and developmental agenda over the years, especially through its USAID-sponsored projects/initiatives.
The inauguration of President Donald Trump has since seen a significant shift in both countries’ bilateral ties, following Trump’s decision to deport several Liberian immigrants from the US, coupled with the closures of all USAID projects affecting key sectors in Liberia.
The aid freeze is part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to reassess its foreign aid priorities, but critics argue that it could hinder progress in key areas such as health, education, and infrastructure, which are vital for Liberia’s long-term stability and growth.
Liberia is facing the challenge of a ‘natural resource trap’ whereby a narrow, commodity-based development model has led to repeated cycles of stagnation and recovery, leaving the vast majority of the population in abject poverty.
The country also remains vulnerable to shocks due to weak drivers of long-term prosperity, such as human capital, wealth accumulation, and productivity, which has undermined the country’s economic growth potential.
However, the study further found that a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario would yield modest growth, insufficient for achieving middle-income status by 2030 and substantially reducing poverty, as real per capita GDP will grow modestly, and Liberia will not reach the middle-income threshold of US$1,000 until around 2050.
According to the World Bank landmark report, while European markets, including Switzerland, the UK, and the broader EU, still account for nearly 40% of Liberia’s total exports, China’s share has surged.
The WB report also revealed that between 2019 and 2021, China absorbed 11.2% of Liberian exports, a significant jump from just 3.3% a decade earlier, while the U.S., once a dominant buyer of Liberian goods, saw its share plummeted drastically from 22% in 2009-2011 to just 7% in 2019-2021.
The report, at the same time, urged the government to move beyond its reliance on commodity exports by prioritizing economic diversification, which includes key recommendations like investments in value-added production within agriculture, light manufacturing, and services.
The report added a fundamental shift in policy is further required to create an environment that fosters industrial growth, expands export opportunities, and enhances infrastructure across Liberia.
Reacting to the report findings, Deputy Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) governor for Economic Affairs, Dr. Musa Dukuly acknowledged the country’s limited economic diversification and reaffirmed the Boakai administration’s commitment to addressing these structural challenges during the launch of the report.
He assured, “President Joseph Boakai’s administration is working to build economic buffers and reserves that will protect us from future external shocks. As such, our goal is to cultivate a more resilient and diversified economy that is not solely dependent on raw material exports.”
Dukuly added that the Boakai’s administration has already outlined policies in its national development strategy intended to strengthen industrial capacity, revitalize agriculture, and improve the investment climate, and added that efforts to promote local value-added production and reduce import dependency are also underway.
Meanwhile, with China now leading as the primary destination for Liberian exports, Liberians have expressed their optimism about the potential for increased trade relations and investment opportunities that could help Liberia escape the cycle of dependency on its natural resources.
They furthered that the shift in trade dynamics is now seen as a double-edged sword; while it presents opportunities for economic growth, it also raises concerns about the sustainability of Liberia’s resource management and the potential for economic over-reliance on a single partner.